Eeyore; or, Is the Future Now?

I woke up this morning, took a look at the Washington Post sports section, reconfirmed that Bruney was indeed designated for assignment and that Storen was joining the Nats in St. Louis, and thought to myself, "Storen today, Strasburg in a few weeks . . . maybe the Nats really are just like the 2008 worst-to-first Tampa Bay Rays." Immediate corrective thought: "No they're not, you asshole."


This post is mainly in the interests of keeping myself grounded so I don't float off in a Kool-Aid haze like Tom Boswell. (Am I repeating myself? Maybe. But now that the Nationals are in OMG SECOND PLACE!!!1!! and Strasmas is nigh, tempering my own expectations is more relevant than it was last September.)

Apologies in advance for my inability to properly format tables in Blogger.


Why the 2010 Washington Nationals are not the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays

The Nationals may have sucked, but they haven't sucked enough


From 1998-2006, the Rays performed poorly enough to ensure that they selected eighth or better in the first round of the draft. The Rays selected first overall in 1999, 2003, and 2007. 

Tampa Bay Rays First Round Picks 1999-2007
Year	Overall Pick	Name	Pos.
1999	1	Josh Hamilton	OF
2000	6	Rocco Baldelli	OF
2001	3	Dewon Brazelton	RHP
2002	2	BJ Upton	SS
2003	1	Delmon Young	OF
2004	4	Jeff Niemann	RHP
2005	8	Wade Townsend	RHP
2006	3	Evan Longoria	3B
2007	1	David Price	LHP
Tampa Bay Rays Second Round Picks 1999-2007
Year	Overall Pick	Name	Pos.
1999	52	Carl Crawford	OF
2001	47	Jon Switzer	LHP
2002	43	Jason Pridie	OF
2003	38	James Houser	LHP
2004	45	Reid Brignac	SS
2005	56	Christopher Mason	RHP
2006	47	Josh Butler	RHP
2007	65	Will Kline	RHP
Tampa Bay Rays Third Round Picks 1999-2007
Year	Overall Pick	Name	Pos.
1999	85	Doug Waechter	RHP
2001	79	Chris Finn	RHP
2002	74	Elijah Dukes	OF
2003	68	Andrew Miller	LHP
2004	75	Wade Davis	RHP
2005	88	Avery Morris	RHP
2006	79	Nichoals Fuller	RHP
2007	95	Nick Barnese	RHP
Tampa Bay Rays Fourth Round Picks 1999-2007
Year	Overall Pick	Name	Pos.
1999	115	Alex Santos	RHP
2001	109	Dave Bush	RHP
2002	104	Wes Bankston	OF
2003	98	Travis Schlichting	3B
2004	105	Matthew Spring	C
2005	118	Jeremy Hellickson	RHP
2006	109	Alexander Cobb	RHP
2007	125	David Newmann	LHP

Even factoring in failed draft picks and development busts, the Rays' near decade of on-field incompetence allowed them to stockpile a huge amount of talent. Moreover, the Rays' player development process apparently works. Nearly every single one of the Rays' 1999-2007 1st round picks developed into a major-league regular. Rounds 2-4 couldn't be expected to be as successful, but Carl Crawford and Elijah Dukes stand out. The Rays also drafted Aubrey Huff in the 5th round in 1998 and Seth McClung in the 5th round in 1999. 

But successful drafting and player development does more than just replenish a team's major league roster -- it gives a team assets to trade. Just look at how the 2008 Rays were built:

Player	Acquired	Year
Grant Balfour	Trade w/MIL for Seth McClung	2007
Jason Bartlett	Trade w/MIN for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, Jason Pridie	2007
Carl Crawford	Draft pick	1999
Cliff Floyd	Free agent	2007
Matt Garza	Trade w/MIN for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, Jason Pridie	2007
Gabe Gross	Trade w/Brewers for Josh Butler	2008
Eric Hinske	Minor League contract	2008
J.P. Howell	Trade w/Royals for Joey Gathright,Fernando Cortez	2006
Akinori Iwamura	Free-agent signing	2006
Scott Kazmir	Trade w/Mets for Victor Zambrano,Bartolome Fortunato	2004
Evan Longoria	Draft pick	2006
Dioner Navarro	Trade w/Dodgers for Toby Hall, Mark Hendrickson	2006
Carlos Pena	Minor League contract	2007
Troy Percival	Free-agent signing	2007
David Price	Draft pick	2007
James Shields	Draft pick	2000
Andy Sonnanstine	Draft pick	2004
B.J. Upton	Draft pick	2002
Dan Wheeler	Trade w/Astros for Ty Wigginton	2007
Ben Zobrist	Trade w/Astros for Aubrey Huff	2006

Take away judicious (but still important) complementary free-agent signings like Iwamura, Percival, Floyd, and Pena, and nearly every major contributor to the 2008 Rays was a draft pick or traded for players the Rays had drafted and developed.

The Expos/Nationals haven't been nearly as successful at drafting and player development over the same span of years. The Nationals excel at promoting major-league ready 1st round picks to the major leagues, but struggle to develop those less-polished players that need time in the minor leagues. To wit: most of them. So far, the Expos/Nationals drafts have produced few major league regulars (Cordero, Zimmerman, too soon to tell on Desmond and Bernadina, please please Strasburg and Storen), and are still more notable for high profile washouts like Mike Hinckley and Colton Willems. And as for tradable commodities, there's little else after Derrick Norris and Danny Espinosa. The Nats don't have the goods to both service the major league roster and trade for established players.

The 2007 Tampa Bay Rays were already pretty close to being the 2008 Rays

Compare the rosters for the 2007 and 2008 Rays and you'll notice a lot of the same players. So why were the Rays so much better in 2008 than they were in 2007 and how do the 2010 Nats differ?

• Better defense: The 2008 Rays allowed 273 fewer runs than the 2007 team. The 2010 Nats are on pace to allow 116 fewer runs, which is impressive, but it's not quite the dramatic defensive turnaround displayed by Tampa Bay.
• Better pitching: The Rays replaced the unreliable Jason Hammel with the solid Matt Garza, every other Rays starter had a better year in 2008 than he did in 2007, and the team completely remade its bullpen for 2008. While the Nats' bullpen is markedly improved over 2009 (now that Bruney has been DFA'd), the starting pitching is still a jury rigged mess. St. Stephen is on his way, and Olsen looks good so far, but Livan/Lannan/Stammen is duct tape. The Nats' starting pitching still needs an overhaul.
• Run production: The 2008 Rays scored eight fewer runs than the 2007 team while getting offensive contributions from more players. The Rays' improved 2008 bench, a better season from Navarro, and the additions of Longoria, Gross, and Floyd allowed the Rays to weather down years from Pena and Crawford while simultaneously providing enough pop to cover for all-glove no-bat Bartlett. The Nats are also on pace to score slightly fewer runs in 2010 than they did in 2009, but that's mainly because they have fewer sources of run production. Kennedy and Desmond are below-average, the bench is not so hot, and Nyjer Morgan is slowly failing (or, if you want to be charitable, merely slumping. Can one slump on the basepaths?) Zimmerman, Dunn, Willingham -- and then what? Hope Zombie Pudge is well-supplied with the brains that have him off to such a hot start (pay no attention to his lousy May)? The Nats' roster has a lot of offensive soft spots.

There's no need to create artificially elevated expectations by comparing the 2010 Nationals to the 2008 Rays

The 2008 Rays were a great story because they seemingly (if you weren't paying attention) came out of nowhere to go from last place in their division to first place. Worst-to-first was a great story with a compelling narrative arc that everyone was able to grasp the broad contours of even if they remained fuzzy on some of the details. It's not so easy to get excited about a multi-year rebuilding process. Pointing at the May standings and drooling over Strasburg and Storen might be good for short-term ticket sales, but is it the best way to convert the locals, who have mostly ignored the Nats? I'll be pretty damned happy if the team ends up doing something as miraculous as ending 2010 with a record close to .500, but how will all those new fans who were sold a shot at the Wild Card feel if the Nats are playing golf come October? 

Even though I still have doubts about Rizzo and doubts about the Lerners, there's no denying anymore that the team is on the right track. Combine that with the aging Phillies roster, the Mets' boundless ineptitude, and the Marlins' self-destructive frugality, and it's not unreasonable to envision the Nats being truly competitive (with the right moves and the right breaks) as soon as 2011. There's no need to punch up the Nats' story when that story hasn't lacked for drama. From the front office housecleaning to signing Strasburg at the last minute to free agents viewing DC as a viable destination to the death of Nats Fail, the Nats have come a long way since the "Natinals" days. (Although Opening Day might have been the biggest fail of all. Never forget.) The Washington Nationals have their own story; they don't need some other team's.

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In other words, is it still too early for this? Get back to me in September. Does that mean they shouldn't do something to improve their chances of making the playoffs this year, like maybe trading for Roy Oswalt? Not necessarily. (Besides, Roy is under contract for 2011, too. Possible 2011 rotation of Oswalt, Strasburg, Zimmermann, Wang, Olsen/Lannan/Stammen/Marquis excite you the way it excites me?)